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White Papers

Bitcoin: The New Frontier in Asset Management

An interview with Portfolio Managers on their outlook on the cryptocurrency market, and the challenges and opportunities in cryptocurrency investment and trading.

by

THE BRIEF:

Dear Colleagues,

One of my favorite aspects of being an asset management recruiter is to be able to observe new and differentiated strategies investors create to make money. There's an en vogue period for every strategy - last year was private lending, this year is the year of quant, next year will be long-short equity coming back again (mark my words!). This particular season, the buzzword on everyone's lips is bitcoin.

Bitcoin is simply one of many digital assets, but it is by far the largest and most recognizable. Stemming from the creation of a mysterious Japanese hacker named Satoshi Nakamoto, (who very well could be a 28 year old American sitting in front of his computer in his boxer shorts) the cryptocurrency age began around 2009. Slowly at first, bitcoin gained traction upon the advent of payment processors, online poker junkies, banking solutions for drug cartels, and a few smart developers and programmers on Wall Street who saw an opportunity to invest in decentralized currency.

As I went on my journey to identify credible bitcoin managers, marketers, and allocators for this piece, I found that these investors are unlike any other niche I have covered previously. The success of many start-up funds typically hinges upon the ability to market a track record, but there is no significant "track record" for the new world of cryptocurrency. Instead of a space which features ivy-leagued and tenured investors from the big shops, there is a totally new class of cutting edge talent, many of whom are young, and all of whom are at no less of an advantage trading than tenured investor peers. This shift has also put the "R&D" professionals in the spotlight doing the actual investing. Taking a starring role are programmers, developers, etc., who have had previously very little to do with marketing and managing assets.

There is no precedent for cryptocurrency, and the decision makers are almost all new to the scene. With that in mind, how does an allocator due diligence these fund strategies and determine which funds to invest in? How do these sector funds hire internally? What are the long-term investment opportunities?

I assembled a few guests to discuss.

Our contributors are:

  • Rasheed Sabar - Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group
  • William Vranos - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners
  • Jay Berg - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital
  • Chris Cutler - CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

The broader theme here that I'd like to leave you with is that our market thrives on innovation. Here is a strategy that is innovative by nature, given its short existence, and has created an intersection of hacking nerds, smart leaders, and young entrepreneurs . Whether bullish or bearish, I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Best regards,
ALEXIS

Rasheed Sabar Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
China has always had an ambivalent relationship with bitcoin. It has "cracked down" on it multiple times in the past, banning customer withdrawals from exchanges only to reverse those decisions months later. It has also telegraphed its intention to develop its own state-sponsored cryptocurrency. On the one hand, as a nation with capital controls, it will remain opposed to bitcoin. On the other hand, as a hub of bitcoin mining and to the extent bitcoin becomes a (non-dollar) global currency, it will support bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
It is valuable as a "state-less" money system. It is not tied to banking system or monetary policy of any one country. This is especially valuable for citizens in countries with bad monetary policies or corrupt banking systems.It is also an asset that exhibits reflexivity (a theory of markets developed by George Soros), in which increased prices trigger more infrastructure development which in turn triggers increased adoption and then increased prices. Finally, it can be conceived as "digital gold", i.e. an asset that appreciates in times of low government trust or banking crises with low correlation to traditional asset classes. That being said, there are many cons, including that it is still a maturing technology and one that will inherently have a conflicted relationship with governments and central banks.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
There are opportunities both in asset management and in infrastructure investments . Within asset management, there are alpha opportunities (short-term and event driven) as well as beta opportunities (risk premia products). There are also opportunities to create income streams from crypto assets through lending products .
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Investors who want to do it themselves should need to solve (a) coin selection, (b) execution, (c) security, and (d) risk management. With respect to coin selection, the space is larger than bitcoin, and new tokens come out each week. Execution is non-trivial given that bitcoin trades on 50+ exchanges, all at different prices. Security is not easy given that any funds stored online are vulnerable to theft. Also, dynamic risk-managed strategies may suffer smaller drawdowns than passive buy and hold strategies.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Any asset that has sufficient liquidity and volatility is "credible". Traders make money off of volatility.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HITE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
We look for folks at the intersection of technology and finance.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Something about the space feels inevitable, though the path for how we get there is unpredictable.

William Vranos Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners

WHAT IS BITCOIN AND WHY IS IT ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency, and a store of wealth, akin to precious metals or oil. Because bitcoin uses a PoW (Proof of Work) protocol to solve the issue of distributed synchronization, it is incredibly secure but it probably won't scale efficiently enough to be a viable global micro transaction system. What's nice about bitcoin is that it's decentralized. Many laud it as a "hedge against governments" but I'd argue gold has already been an effective doomsday indicator for some time. Unlike gold, most bitcoins are already in circulation and the supply is not dependent upon price action. The supply growth of bitcoin is fixed, self-adjusting, and slowly decreasing , therefore it's a secure, decentralized store of wealth with an established growth rate.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN, AND OTHER NAYSAYERS?
Bitcoin actually has done very well in countries with tight capital controls. China looks to be cracking down on bitcoin exchanges due to concerns of citizens expatriating funds. To the high profile investors that claim we're in a bitcoin bubble; you may be right. This could be similar to a .com bubble where the vision is spot-on but the valuations are too optimistic . But bitcoin can't be stopped by a government or powerful investors - it will only die if interest in it dies - and this isn't happening any time soon.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Depending on the management fee charged, a fund which is simply long bitcoin isn't a great deal. For example, Grayscale offers a Bitcoin Investment Trust that just holds bitcoin , charges 2% annually, and shares of it have easily traded at a 40% premium to the actual bitcoin price. This makes it clear that some investors are willing to pay a fee not to have to worry about exchanging and safely storing bitcoins. Even those who are willing to handle bitcoin themselves are still very exposed , making a portfolio of cryptocurrencies a more attractive offering.
IN YOUR OPINION, IS BITCOIN A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
It depends on your risk tolerance and liquidity demands . We've seen exchanges hacked in the past, and users have no guarantee that lost cryptocurrencies will be honored. Some exchanges protect dollars with FDIC insurance, but the government has made no indication that it will be insuring digital assets any time soon. Further, the lack of derivatives may not matter to a casual investor, but it may keep large institutions at bay. There's currently no good way to short bitcoin , and the inability to hedge exposure is an important hurdle for bitcoin to jump on its path towards legitimacy.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE YOUR STAFF? WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUNDS MAKE GOOD BITCOIN INVESTORS/EMPLOYEES?
Since nobody is incredibly experienced in this particular space, I have found success in hiring people whose experiences are most directly compatible with my needs. For example, I knew I would need to leverage Amazon Web Services, so I found a partner who worked in this department at Amazon. Another partner of mine has very strong math and programming skills that can be applied in a variety of ways.

Jay Berg Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINE CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
Banning trading and exchanges will have little impact on bitcoin price. New exchanges in Korea and Japan are already being used by as an alternative to Chinese exchanges. However, if China were to ban bitcoin mining, it would have a significant impact on short term liquidity of bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin can't be replicated using any combination of gold, US sovereign bonds, or foreign currencies, and is not strongly affected by the macroeconomic factors that drive most asset classes. It can be a part of passively held, long only portfolio. It is a hedge against harmful geopolitical events due to its decentralized nature. Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to hedge against geopolitical risks but remains unaffected by the macroeconomic factors that drive other store of value asset
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
The basic investment opportunity is to gain exposure to the dollar price of bitcoin with a buy and hold strategy. Another strategy is to earn additional bitcoins with a basket of alternative coins (alt-coins). Since these coins are traded against bitcoins, alt-coin appreciation may earn you bitcoins independent of the USO price of bitcoin.
There is also the ability to short bitcoins against USO, or to short alt-coins against bitcoin. A long / short portfolio of alt-coins can also be employed, with the possibility of remaining market neutral.
Finally, there is the Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs, which offer the highest risk/reward . Bringing ICOs to market, or "pre-lCOs" are very lucrative opportunities, but has still unknown regulator risk.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Bitcoins are meant to be controlled by individuals. Most people who invest in bitcoin will likely manage their own wallets and run bitcoin full node software . Other Investors who are less technically savvy, or possess very large bitcoin holdings, are susceptible to a loss/ theft or hack, where their entire bitcoin investment can just vanish without a trace, therefore investing in a fund may be appropriate when the fund managers themselves are well versed in bitcoin, and bitcoin security. In this case, among other benefits, the investor is paying fees for potentially increasing the safety of their investments.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Bitcoin is not necessarily a viable currency at this moment in time, but it is a real solid store of value. Bitcoin has always been a credible and investable asset as a store of value, and its properties as a borderless, scarce, and instantaneously transactable asset with a history of being used as a hedge against geo-political and economic uncertainty make it a "new gold". Also, due to emerging payment system technology , holders of bitcoin and other currencies can now use Cryptocurrencies at nearly any retailer with point of sale conversion technology. Advances like this make Bitcoin a much more viable currency. In essence, the currency becomes more credible as technology is developed / improved.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
In my opinion, the best place to source talent is through industry referrals. The cryptocurrency community is very tight knit and typically industry insiders have the best information on talent.
WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUND MAKE A GOOD BITCOIN INVESTOR/EMPLOYEES?
Software developers, hackers, coders, technologists.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Yes, because cryptocurrencies have the potential to replace precious metals as the premier store of value asset in institutional portfolios.

Chris Cutler CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

WHY WOULD CRYPTOCURRENCY FUND BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING?
Diversify across numerous badly engineered cryptocurrencies [please excuse my sarcasm].
HOW DO YOU DUE DILIGENCE A STRATEGY THAT IS ENTIRELY NEW, CONSIDERING THAT MOST OF THESE MANAGERS HAVE A PROGRAMMING BACKGROUND, NOT A PM BACKGROUND?
Actually I would like to see managers with both technology and payment systems/regulatory backgrounds. Investors in and creators of cryptocurrencies often underestimate the long-term competitive hurdle posed by the complexity and safeguards built into the existing payments systems. For modern payments systems, illicit payments can often be tracked by police authorities, payments reversed, crime deterred, theft detected. With cryptocurrencies, all of these are problems. The Mount Gox scandal, with over $400 million of bitcoin stolen, is just the tip of the iceberg. Other thefts of bitcoin have occurred and haven't been widely reported. In fact, bitcoin's "keys" would be easily mined in a post-quantum technology framework. Many investors are looking at cryptocurrencies the way they look at venture investing. Most investments will return zero, but only one needs to be successful to make the overall allocation wildly profitable. That may be true. However, many of the white papers I've read offer just a bag of bolts and I suspect most investors will be very disappointed.
DO YOU THINK THERE IS LONGEVITY IN THE SPACE?
Yes I do. A few keys to success long-term are for the cryptocurrency to:
  • Have a sensible governance process. Bitcoin's splitting into three camps shows it does not have a very sensible governance process. Moreover, changes to technology and to future security needs that may not be anticipated today would necessitate some sort of human decision-making body in the future. That would require a governance process that I haven't seen in any of the white papers I have read.
  • Have speed of execution and verification, so there is a reasonable prospect for it to be used as a currency without taking even minutes to clear and process transactions.
  • Allow for effective security protocols. I am left to wonder how many bitcoin holders have not yet realized that their primary number keys have been solved for and their bitcoins stolen .An effective audit trail for law enforcement to assist in recovering funds, and to prevent the crypto currency's use as the preferred vehicle for terrorists, extortionists, rogue states, and other criminals, will be critical to a cryptocurrency's successful legal adoption in many countries.

White Papers

Bitcoin: The New Frontier in Asset Management

An interview with Portfolio Managers on their outlook on the cryptocurrency market, and the challenges and opportunities in cryptocurrency investment and trading.

FEATURING

Rasheed Sabar
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, ELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP
William Vranos
Founder & Portfolio Manager, GREEN KEY PARTNERS
Jay Berg
Founder & Managing Partner, PRIVATE KEY CAPITAL
Christopher Cutler, CFA
Founder, MANAGER ANALYSIS SERVICES
Moderated by Alexis DuFresne

Dear Colleagues,

One of my favorite aspects of being an asset management recruiter is to be able to observe new and differentiated strategies investors create to make money. There's an en vogue period for every strategy - last year was private lending, this year is the year of quant, next year will be long-short equity coming back again (mark my words!). This particular season, the buzzword on everyone's lips is bitcoin.

Bitcoin is simply one of many digital assets, but it is by far the largest and most recognizable. Stemming from the creation of a mysterious Japanese hacker named Satoshi Nakamoto, (who very well could be a 28 year old American sitting in front of his computer in his boxer shorts) the cryptocurrency age began around 2009. Slowly at first, bitcoin gained traction upon the advent of payment processors, online poker junkies, banking solutions for drug cartels, and a few smart developers and programmers on Wall Street who saw an opportunity to invest in decentralized currency.

As I went on my journey to identify credible bitcoin managers, marketers, and allocators for this piece, I found that these investors are unlike any other niche I have covered previously. The success of many start-up funds typically hinges upon the ability to market a track record, but there is no significant "track record" for the new world of cryptocurrency. Instead of a space which features ivy-leagued and tenured investors from the big shops, there is a totally new class of cutting edge talent, many of whom are young, and all of whom are at no less of an advantage trading than tenured investor peers. This shift has also put the "R&D" professionals in the spotlight doing the actual investing. Taking a starring role are programmers, developers, etc., who have had previously very little to do with marketing and managing assets.

There is no precedent for cryptocurrency, and the decision makers are almost all new to the scene. With that in mind, how does an allocator due diligence these fund strategies and determine which funds to invest in? How do these sector funds hire internally? What are the long-term investment opportunities?

I assembled a few guests to discuss.

Our contributors are:

  • Rasheed Sabar - Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group
  • William Vranos - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners
  • Jay Berg - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital
  • Chris Cutler - CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

The broader theme here that I'd like to leave you with is that our market thrives on innovation. Here is a strategy that is innovative by nature, given its short existence, and has created an intersection of hacking nerds, smart leaders, and young entrepreneurs . Whether bullish or bearish, I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Best regards,
ALEXIS

Rasheed Sabar Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
China has always had an ambivalent relationship with bitcoin. It has "cracked down" on it multiple times in the past, banning customer withdrawals from exchanges only to reverse those decisions months later. It has also telegraphed its intention to develop its own state-sponsored cryptocurrency. On the one hand, as a nation with capital controls, it will remain opposed to bitcoin. On the other hand, as a hub of bitcoin mining and to the extent bitcoin becomes a (non-dollar) global currency, it will support bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
It is valuable as a "state-less" money system. It is not tied to banking system or monetary policy of any one country. This is especially valuable for citizens in countries with bad monetary policies or corrupt banking systems.It is also an asset that exhibits reflexivity (a theory of markets developed by George Soros), in which increased prices trigger more infrastructure development which in turn triggers increased adoption and then increased prices. Finally, it can be conceived as "digital gold", i.e. an asset that appreciates in times of low government trust or banking crises with low correlation to traditional asset classes. That being said, there are many cons, including that it is still a maturing technology and one that will inherently have a conflicted relationship with governments and central banks.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
There are opportunities both in asset management and in infrastructure investments . Within asset management, there are alpha opportunities (short-term and event driven) as well as beta opportunities (risk premia products). There are also opportunities to create income streams from crypto assets through lending products .
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Investors who want to do it themselves should need to solve (a) coin selection, (b) execution, (c) security, and (d) risk management. With respect to coin selection, the space is larger than bitcoin, and new tokens come out each week. Execution is non-trivial given that bitcoin trades on 50+ exchanges, all at different prices. Security is not easy given that any funds stored online are vulnerable to theft. Also, dynamic risk-managed strategies may suffer smaller drawdowns than passive buy and hold strategies.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Any asset that has sufficient liquidity and volatility is "credible". Traders make money off of volatility.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HITE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
We look for folks at the intersection of technology and finance.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Something about the space feels inevitable, though the path for how we get there is unpredictable.

William Vranos Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners

WHAT IS BITCOIN AND WHY IS IT ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency, and a store of wealth, akin to precious metals or oil. Because bitcoin uses a PoW (Proof of Work) protocol to solve the issue of distributed synchronization, it is incredibly secure but it probably won't scale efficiently enough to be a viable global micro transaction system. What's nice about bitcoin is that it's decentralized. Many laud it as a "hedge against governments" but I'd argue gold has already been an effective doomsday indicator for some time. Unlike gold, most bitcoins are already in circulation and the supply is not dependent upon price action. The supply growth of bitcoin is fixed, self-adjusting, and slowly decreasing , therefore it's a secure, decentralized store of wealth with an established growth rate.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN, AND OTHER NAYSAYERS?
Bitcoin actually has done very well in countries with tight capital controls. China looks to be cracking down on bitcoin exchanges due to concerns of citizens expatriating funds. To the high profile investors that claim we're in a bitcoin bubble; you may be right. This could be similar to a .com bubble where the vision is spot-on but the valuations are too optimistic . But bitcoin can't be stopped by a government or powerful investors - it will only die if interest in it dies - and this isn't happening any time soon.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Depending on the management fee charged, a fund which is simply long bitcoin isn't a great deal. For example, Grayscale offers a Bitcoin Investment Trust that just holds bitcoin , charges 2% annually, and shares of it have easily traded at a 40% premium to the actual bitcoin price. This makes it clear that some investors are willing to pay a fee not to have to worry about exchanging and safely storing bitcoins. Even those who are willing to handle bitcoin themselves are still very exposed , making a portfolio of cryptocurrencies a more attractive offering.
IN YOUR OPINION, IS BITCOIN A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
It depends on your risk tolerance and liquidity demands . We've seen exchanges hacked in the past, and users have no guarantee that lost cryptocurrencies will be honored. Some exchanges protect dollars with FDIC insurance, but the government has made no indication that it will be insuring digital assets any time soon. Further, the lack of derivatives may not matter to a casual investor, but it may keep large institutions at bay. There's currently no good way to short bitcoin , and the inability to hedge exposure is an important hurdle for bitcoin to jump on its path towards legitimacy.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE YOUR STAFF? WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUNDS MAKE GOOD BITCOIN INVESTORS/EMPLOYEES?
Since nobody is incredibly experienced in this particular space, I have found success in hiring people whose experiences are most directly compatible with my needs. For example, I knew I would need to leverage Amazon Web Services, so I found a partner who worked in this department at Amazon. Another partner of mine has very strong math and programming skills that can be applied in a variety of ways.

Jay Berg Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINE CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
Banning trading and exchanges will have little impact on bitcoin price. New exchanges in Korea and Japan are already being used by as an alternative to Chinese exchanges. However, if China were to ban bitcoin mining, it would have a significant impact on short term liquidity of bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin can't be replicated using any combination of gold, US sovereign bonds, or foreign currencies, and is not strongly affected by the macroeconomic factors that drive most asset classes. It can be a part of passively held, long only portfolio. It is a hedge against harmful geopolitical events due to its decentralized nature. Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to hedge against geopolitical risks but remains unaffected by the macroeconomic factors that drive other store of value asset
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
The basic investment opportunity is to gain exposure to the dollar price of bitcoin with a buy and hold strategy. Another strategy is to earn additional bitcoins with a basket of alternative coins (alt-coins). Since these coins are traded against bitcoins, alt-coin appreciation may earn you bitcoins independent of the USO price of bitcoin.
There is also the ability to short bitcoins against USO, or to short alt-coins against bitcoin. A long / short portfolio of alt-coins can also be employed, with the possibility of remaining market neutral.
Finally, there is the Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs, which offer the highest risk/reward . Bringing ICOs to market, or "pre-lCOs" are very lucrative opportunities, but has still unknown regulator risk.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Bitcoins are meant to be controlled by individuals. Most people who invest in bitcoin will likely manage their own wallets and run bitcoin full node software . Other Investors who are less technically savvy, or possess very large bitcoin holdings, are susceptible to a loss/ theft or hack, where their entire bitcoin investment can just vanish without a trace, therefore investing in a fund may be appropriate when the fund managers themselves are well versed in bitcoin, and bitcoin security. In this case, among other benefits, the investor is paying fees for potentially increasing the safety of their investments.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Bitcoin is not necessarily a viable currency at this moment in time, but it is a real solid store of value. Bitcoin has always been a credible and investable asset as a store of value, and its properties as a borderless, scarce, and instantaneously transactable asset with a history of being used as a hedge against geo-political and economic uncertainty make it a "new gold". Also, due to emerging payment system technology , holders of bitcoin and other currencies can now use Cryptocurrencies at nearly any retailer with point of sale conversion technology. Advances like this make Bitcoin a much more viable currency. In essence, the currency becomes more credible as technology is developed / improved.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
In my opinion, the best place to source talent is through industry referrals. The cryptocurrency community is very tight knit and typically industry insiders have the best information on talent.
WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUND MAKE A GOOD BITCOIN INVESTOR/EMPLOYEES?
Software developers, hackers, coders, technologists.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Yes, because cryptocurrencies have the potential to replace precious metals as the premier store of value asset in institutional portfolios.

Chris Cutler CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

WHY WOULD CRYPTOCURRENCY FUND BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING?
Diversify across numerous badly engineered cryptocurrencies [please excuse my sarcasm].
HOW DO YOU DUE DILIGENCE A STRATEGY THAT IS ENTIRELY NEW, CONSIDERING THAT MOST OF THESE MANAGERS HAVE A PROGRAMMING BACKGROUND, NOT A PM BACKGROUND?
Actually I would like to see managers with both technology and payment systems/regulatory backgrounds. Investors in and creators of cryptocurrencies often underestimate the long-term competitive hurdle posed by the complexity and safeguards built into the existing payments systems. For modern payments systems, illicit payments can often be tracked by police authorities, payments reversed, crime deterred, theft detected. With cryptocurrencies, all of these are problems. The Mount Gox scandal, with over $400 million of bitcoin stolen, is just the tip of the iceberg. Other thefts of bitcoin have occurred and haven't been widely reported. In fact, bitcoin's "keys" would be easily mined in a post-quantum technology framework. Many investors are looking at cryptocurrencies the way they look at venture investing. Most investments will return zero, but only one needs to be successful to make the overall allocation wildly profitable. That may be true. However, many of the white papers I've read offer just a bag of bolts and I suspect most investors will be very disappointed.
DO YOU THINK THERE IS LONGEVITY IN THE SPACE?
Yes I do. A few keys to success long-term are for the cryptocurrency to:
  • Have a sensible governance process. Bitcoin's splitting into three camps shows it does not have a very sensible governance process. Moreover, changes to technology and to future security needs that may not be anticipated today would necessitate some sort of human decision-making body in the future. That would require a governance process that I haven't seen in any of the white papers I have read.
  • Have speed of execution and verification, so there is a reasonable prospect for it to be used as a currency without taking even minutes to clear and process transactions.
  • Allow for effective security protocols. I am left to wonder how many bitcoin holders have not yet realized that their primary number keys have been solved for and their bitcoins stolen .An effective audit trail for law enforcement to assist in recovering funds, and to prevent the crypto currency's use as the preferred vehicle for terrorists, extortionists, rogue states, and other criminals, will be critical to a cryptocurrency's successful legal adoption in many countries.

About the Participants

Rasheed Sabar
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, ELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP

Rasheed is the Head of Quantitative Strategies at Ellington Management Group. He developed the core set of strategies traded by the Quantitative Strategies Group, including strategies in equities, financial futures, commodities, and volatility.

ELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP is a $6.5B AUM asset manager. Ellington's founding strategies include diversified credit, mortgage, and related markets, as well as in quantitative macro and equities strategies. Ellington has also developed diverse quantitative macro capabilities, including use of systematic strategies to invest in global equities, futures, interest rate, options, synthetic credit, and foreign exchange markets.

William Vranos
Founder & Portfolio Manager, GREEN KEY PARTNERS

William Vranos is the CEO and founder of Green Key Partners . After gaining investment experience at Ellington Management Group, Mr. Vranos launched his own cryptocurrency focused firm in September 2017. Mr. Vranos holds a Math/CS degree from Dartmouth.

GREEN KEY PARTNERS is a cryptocurrency focused hedge fund dedicated to the digital assets space. The firm is involved in alpha generation strategies and smart beta portfolio offerings. Before to working together, the partners were trading cryptocurrencies, working in Amazon's robotics department, and working on a PhD in theoretical physics at Brown.

Jay Berg
Founder & Managing Partner, PRIVATE KEY CAPITAL

Mr. Berg has more than 20 years of experience developing, designing and delivering complex software solutions with a focus on electronic exchanges, high-frequency trading, cryptocurrency exchanges, and proprietary trading groups.

PRIVATE KEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT is an open-ended, private index-based investment fund. Based in New York, and founded in 2017, the Fund will allow institutional investors to gain broad exposure to the cryptocurrency asset class through a low-cost investment vehicle with no performance fee, and will maintain access to the largest and most liquid digital assets, and will trade at a NAV that is representative of the Fund's actual holdings.

Christopher Cutler, CFA
Founder, MANAGER ANALYSIS SERVICES

Christopher Cutler founded Manager Analysis Services in 2003 to provide outsourced due diligence services on investment managers. Mr. Cutler has an MBA from NYU Stern, a BA in Economics from the University of Chicago .

MANAGER ANALYSIS SERVICES [MAS] is an investment consulting firm. We advise institutional clients on all aspects of their investment process, while keeping discretion in the hands of the client. Analyzing hedge funds is our original foundation. Additionally, we offer OCIO search and selection advice for institutional investors.

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White Papers

Bitcoin: The New Frontier in Asset Management

An interview with Portfolio Managers on their outlook on the cryptocurrency market, and the challenges and opportunities in cryptocurrency investment and trading.

Dear Colleagues,

One of my favorite aspects of being an asset management recruiter is to be able to observe new and differentiated strategies investors create to make money. There's an en vogue period for every strategy - last year was private lending, this year is the year of quant, next year will be long-short equity coming back again (mark my words!). This particular season, the buzzword on everyone's lips is bitcoin.

Bitcoin is simply one of many digital assets, but it is by far the largest and most recognizable. Stemming from the creation of a mysterious Japanese hacker named Satoshi Nakamoto, (who very well could be a 28 year old American sitting in front of his computer in his boxer shorts) the cryptocurrency age began around 2009. Slowly at first, bitcoin gained traction upon the advent of payment processors, online poker junkies, banking solutions for drug cartels, and a few smart developers and programmers on Wall Street who saw an opportunity to invest in decentralized currency.

As I went on my journey to identify credible bitcoin managers, marketers, and allocators for this piece, I found that these investors are unlike any other niche I have covered previously. The success of many start-up funds typically hinges upon the ability to market a track record, but there is no significant "track record" for the new world of cryptocurrency. Instead of a space which features ivy-leagued and tenured investors from the big shops, there is a totally new class of cutting edge talent, many of whom are young, and all of whom are at no less of an advantage trading than tenured investor peers. This shift has also put the "R&D" professionals in the spotlight doing the actual investing. Taking a starring role are programmers, developers, etc., who have had previously very little to do with marketing and managing assets.

There is no precedent for cryptocurrency, and the decision makers are almost all new to the scene. With that in mind, how does an allocator due diligence these fund strategies and determine which funds to invest in? How do these sector funds hire internally? What are the long-term investment opportunities?

I assembled a few guests to discuss.

Our contributors are:

  • Rasheed Sabar - Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group
  • William Vranos - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners
  • Jay Berg - Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital
  • Chris Cutler - CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

The broader theme here that I'd like to leave you with is that our market thrives on innovation. Here is a strategy that is innovative by nature, given its short existence, and has created an intersection of hacking nerds, smart leaders, and young entrepreneurs . Whether bullish or bearish, I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Best regards,
ALEXIS

Rasheed Sabar Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Ellington Management Group

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
China has always had an ambivalent relationship with bitcoin. It has "cracked down" on it multiple times in the past, banning customer withdrawals from exchanges only to reverse those decisions months later. It has also telegraphed its intention to develop its own state-sponsored cryptocurrency. On the one hand, as a nation with capital controls, it will remain opposed to bitcoin. On the other hand, as a hub of bitcoin mining and to the extent bitcoin becomes a (non-dollar) global currency, it will support bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
It is valuable as a "state-less" money system. It is not tied to banking system or monetary policy of any one country. This is especially valuable for citizens in countries with bad monetary policies or corrupt banking systems.It is also an asset that exhibits reflexivity (a theory of markets developed by George Soros), in which increased prices trigger more infrastructure development which in turn triggers increased adoption and then increased prices. Finally, it can be conceived as "digital gold", i.e. an asset that appreciates in times of low government trust or banking crises with low correlation to traditional asset classes. That being said, there are many cons, including that it is still a maturing technology and one that will inherently have a conflicted relationship with governments and central banks.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
There are opportunities both in asset management and in infrastructure investments . Within asset management, there are alpha opportunities (short-term and event driven) as well as beta opportunities (risk premia products). There are also opportunities to create income streams from crypto assets through lending products .
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Investors who want to do it themselves should need to solve (a) coin selection, (b) execution, (c) security, and (d) risk management. With respect to coin selection, the space is larger than bitcoin, and new tokens come out each week. Execution is non-trivial given that bitcoin trades on 50+ exchanges, all at different prices. Security is not easy given that any funds stored online are vulnerable to theft. Also, dynamic risk-managed strategies may suffer smaller drawdowns than passive buy and hold strategies.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Any asset that has sufficient liquidity and volatility is "credible". Traders make money off of volatility.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HITE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
We look for folks at the intersection of technology and finance.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Something about the space feels inevitable, though the path for how we get there is unpredictable.

William Vranos Founder and Portfolio Manager, Green Key Partners

WHAT IS BITCOIN AND WHY IS IT ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency, and a store of wealth, akin to precious metals or oil. Because bitcoin uses a PoW (Proof of Work) protocol to solve the issue of distributed synchronization, it is incredibly secure but it probably won't scale efficiently enough to be a viable global micro transaction system. What's nice about bitcoin is that it's decentralized. Many laud it as a "hedge against governments" but I'd argue gold has already been an effective doomsday indicator for some time. Unlike gold, most bitcoins are already in circulation and the supply is not dependent upon price action. The supply growth of bitcoin is fixed, self-adjusting, and slowly decreasing , therefore it's a secure, decentralized store of wealth with an established growth rate.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF CHINA CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN, AND OTHER NAYSAYERS?
Bitcoin actually has done very well in countries with tight capital controls. China looks to be cracking down on bitcoin exchanges due to concerns of citizens expatriating funds. To the high profile investors that claim we're in a bitcoin bubble; you may be right. This could be similar to a .com bubble where the vision is spot-on but the valuations are too optimistic . But bitcoin can't be stopped by a government or powerful investors - it will only die if interest in it dies - and this isn't happening any time soon.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR SIMPLY BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Depending on the management fee charged, a fund which is simply long bitcoin isn't a great deal. For example, Grayscale offers a Bitcoin Investment Trust that just holds bitcoin , charges 2% annually, and shares of it have easily traded at a 40% premium to the actual bitcoin price. This makes it clear that some investors are willing to pay a fee not to have to worry about exchanging and safely storing bitcoins. Even those who are willing to handle bitcoin themselves are still very exposed , making a portfolio of cryptocurrencies a more attractive offering.
IN YOUR OPINION, IS BITCOIN A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
It depends on your risk tolerance and liquidity demands . We've seen exchanges hacked in the past, and users have no guarantee that lost cryptocurrencies will be honored. Some exchanges protect dollars with FDIC insurance, but the government has made no indication that it will be insuring digital assets any time soon. Further, the lack of derivatives may not matter to a casual investor, but it may keep large institutions at bay. There's currently no good way to short bitcoin , and the inability to hedge exposure is an important hurdle for bitcoin to jump on its path towards legitimacy.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE YOUR STAFF? WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUNDS MAKE GOOD BITCOIN INVESTORS/EMPLOYEES?
Since nobody is incredibly experienced in this particular space, I have found success in hiring people whose experiences are most directly compatible with my needs. For example, I knew I would need to leverage Amazon Web Services, so I found a partner who worked in this department at Amazon. Another partner of mine has very strong math and programming skills that can be applied in a variety of ways.

Jay Berg Founder and Portfolio Manager, Private Key Capital

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF CHINE CRACKING DOWN ON BITCOIN TRADING?
Banning trading and exchanges will have little impact on bitcoin price. New exchanges in Korea and Japan are already being used by as an alternative to Chinese exchanges. However, if China were to ban bitcoin mining, it would have a significant impact on short term liquidity of bitcoin.
WHY IS BITCOIN AN ATTRACTIVE AS AN ASSET?
Bitcoin can't be replicated using any combination of gold, US sovereign bonds, or foreign currencies, and is not strongly affected by the macroeconomic factors that drive most asset classes. It can be a part of passively held, long only portfolio. It is a hedge against harmful geopolitical events due to its decentralized nature. Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to hedge against geopolitical risks but remains unaffected by the macroeconomic factors that drive other store of value asset
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OPPORTUNITY SET?
The basic investment opportunity is to gain exposure to the dollar price of bitcoin with a buy and hold strategy. Another strategy is to earn additional bitcoins with a basket of alternative coins (alt-coins). Since these coins are traded against bitcoins, alt-coin appreciation may earn you bitcoins independent of the USO price of bitcoin.
There is also the ability to short bitcoins against USO, or to short alt-coins against bitcoin. A long / short portfolio of alt-coins can also be employed, with the possibility of remaining market neutral.
Finally, there is the Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs, which offer the highest risk/reward . Bringing ICOs to market, or "pre-lCOs" are very lucrative opportunities, but has still unknown regulator risk.
WHY WOULDN'T AN INVESTOR BUY BITCOIN THEMSELVES NOW THAT IT IS MORE ACCESSIBLE, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN A FUND AND PAYING THE FEES?
Bitcoins are meant to be controlled by individuals. Most people who invest in bitcoin will likely manage their own wallets and run bitcoin full node software . Other Investors who are less technically savvy, or possess very large bitcoin holdings, are susceptible to a loss/ theft or hack, where their entire bitcoin investment can just vanish without a trace, therefore investing in a fund may be appropriate when the fund managers themselves are well versed in bitcoin, and bitcoin security. In this case, among other benefits, the investor is paying fees for potentially increasing the safety of their investments.
IN YOUR OPINION, WHEN DID BITCOIN BECOME A CREDIBLE CURRENCY TO TRADE?
Bitcoin is not necessarily a viable currency at this moment in time, but it is a real solid store of value. Bitcoin has always been a credible and investable asset as a store of value, and its properties as a borderless, scarce, and instantaneously transactable asset with a history of being used as a hedge against geo-political and economic uncertainty make it a "new gold". Also, due to emerging payment system technology , holders of bitcoin and other currencies can now use Cryptocurrencies at nearly any retailer with point of sale conversion technology. Advances like this make Bitcoin a much more viable currency. In essence, the currency becomes more credible as technology is developed / improved.
GIVEN THAT BITCOIN TRADING IS A NEW FRONTIER WITH A LACK OF TRACK RECORD AND COMPETITORS, WHERE DO YOU LOOK TO HIRE FROM TO STAFF YOUR FIRM?
In my opinion, the best place to source talent is through industry referrals. The cryptocurrency community is very tight knit and typically industry insiders have the best information on talent.
WHAT TYPES OF BACKGROUND MAKE A GOOD BITCOIN INVESTOR/EMPLOYEES?
Software developers, hackers, coders, technologists.
DO YOU FEEL THAT THIS CAN BECOME AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT?
Yes, because cryptocurrencies have the potential to replace precious metals as the premier store of value asset in institutional portfolios.

Chris Cutler CEO, Senior Hedge Fund Due Diligence Analyst at Manager Analysis Services

WHY WOULD CRYPTOCURRENCY FUND BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING?
Diversify across numerous badly engineered cryptocurrencies [please excuse my sarcasm].
HOW DO YOU DUE DILIGENCE A STRATEGY THAT IS ENTIRELY NEW, CONSIDERING THAT MOST OF THESE MANAGERS HAVE A PROGRAMMING BACKGROUND, NOT A PM BACKGROUND?
Actually I would like to see managers with both technology and payment systems/regulatory backgrounds. Investors in and creators of cryptocurrencies often underestimate the long-term competitive hurdle posed by the complexity and safeguards built into the existing payments systems. For modern payments systems, illicit payments can often be tracked by police authorities, payments reversed, crime deterred, theft detected. With cryptocurrencies, all of these are problems. The Mount Gox scandal, with over $400 million of bitcoin stolen, is just the tip of the iceberg. Other thefts of bitcoin have occurred and haven't been widely reported. In fact, bitcoin's "keys" would be easily mined in a post-quantum technology framework. Many investors are looking at cryptocurrencies the way they look at venture investing. Most investments will return zero, but only one needs to be successful to make the overall allocation wildly profitable. That may be true. However, many of the white papers I've read offer just a bag of bolts and I suspect most investors will be very disappointed.
DO YOU THINK THERE IS LONGEVITY IN THE SPACE?
Yes I do. A few keys to success long-term are for the cryptocurrency to:
  • Have a sensible governance process. Bitcoin's splitting into three camps shows it does not have a very sensible governance process. Moreover, changes to technology and to future security needs that may not be anticipated today would necessitate some sort of human decision-making body in the future. That would require a governance process that I haven't seen in any of the white papers I have read.
  • Have speed of execution and verification, so there is a reasonable prospect for it to be used as a currency without taking even minutes to clear and process transactions.
  • Allow for effective security protocols. I am left to wonder how many bitcoin holders have not yet realized that their primary number keys have been solved for and their bitcoins stolen .An effective audit trail for law enforcement to assist in recovering funds, and to prevent the crypto currency's use as the preferred vehicle for terrorists, extortionists, rogue states, and other criminals, will be critical to a cryptocurrency's successful legal adoption in many countries.

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